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“While hydrogen fuel cell technology is very promising, we know that widespread adoption will take time. Many factors will influence this, including emissions regulations, infrastructure, hydrogen availability and total costs of ownership. Buses and trains will likely be some of the first applications to transition to hydrogen, with the Hydrogen Council predicting that heavy- duty trucks will fall further out on the curve with about 2.5% of hydrogen adoption in 2030.”
— Amy Davis, President of New Power Business, Cummins
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The report also offers fleets some recommendations on how to proceed with hydrogen fuel cell electric truck exploration.
- Fleet investment in new fuel cell electric and battery electric vehicles requires vehicles. The debate on infrastructure is irrelevant if there is no demand.
- Hydrogen is a regional solution, cheap hydrogen even more so. The ability to scale truck demand will be limited by the nature of truck production volumes and market forces.
- Purists pushing green hydrogen as a goal should accept that some compromise is needed to allow alternatives in the “how” of getting to net zero-emissions.
- Stop comparisons of fill times. Fill times are moving targets for both fuel cell and battery electric vehicles. In a zero-emission future world, as in California’s plans, diesel does not exist. What is the value of a comparison on fill times?
- Incentives, grants, credits, tax breaks will be around for a while. Truck production volumes versus zero-emission target dates will require zero-emission transport financial help for some years.
With an abundance of new research and company announcements in the hydrogen truck space, this report offers not only a way for the readers to make sense of the opportunity, but also provides a comprehensive set of resources for those who wish to explore the subject further. The report contains 101 figures and 230 references. Much more material exists but these are the reference and figures the NACFE team believes helped put hydrogen fuel cell electric heavy-duty tractors in perspective. NACFE is also available for discussions on this report with the industry and beyond.
“NACFE hopes that key product planners and technology strategists will find value in having these resources all in one place,” Mihelic said.
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About the North American Council for Freight Efficiency
The North American Council for Freight Efficiency (NACFE) works to drive the development and adoption of efficiency enhancing, environmentally beneficial, and cost-effective technologies, services, and operational practices in the movement of goods across North America. NACFE provides independent, unbiased research, including Confidence Reports on available technologies and Guidance Reports on emerging ones, which highlight the benefits and consequences of each, and deliver decision-making tools for fleets, manufacturers, and others. NACFE partners with Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) on a variety of projects including the Run on Less fuel efficiency demonstration series, electric trucks, emissions reductions, and low-carbon supply chains. www.nacfe.org
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About Rocky Mountain Institute
Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI)—an independent nonprofit founded in 1982—transforms global energy use to create a clean, prosperous, and secure low-carbon future. It engages businesses, communities, institutions, and entrepreneurs to accelerate the adoption of market-based solutions that cost-effectively shift from fossil fuels to efficiency and renewables. RMI has offices in Basalt and Boulder, Colorado; New York City; Washington, D.C.; and Beijing.
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