Will the 2027 Emissions Regulations Jump-Start Autonomous Technology Adoption by Fleets?

In a report released last month, the transportation analytic firm ACT Research said its data indicated that new truck prices could jump anywhere from $20,000 to $25,000 per unit when the next round of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) greenhouse gas emissions mandates take effect for diesel truck engines.

[You can read the full report here.]

The most immediate reaction to this extreme price hike, ACT Researchers predict, will be a massive Class 8 prebuy in 2025 and 2026. But it’s the implications of that price increase beyond the 2027 model year that got me thinking about what that might mean for emerging technologies in trucking.

Now, before I get too deep into my speculation here, bear in mind that there’s a lot we don’t know yet about what the 2027 mandates will bring to the table. We don’t know what new technology will become mandatory, for example. Nor do we know where truck prices will be before the price hike hits. And we don’t know if economies of scale will have brought down the price of emerging technologies to a significant degree by then — although it is reasonable to assume that will be the case.

But let’s assume for the purposes of this blog that prices do increase by $25,000 per truck beginning in 2027. That is a significant disruption to the new truck market, and one that will cause fleets to pause and consider other options available to them. And those fleet managers will note that an additional $25,000 per truck goes a long way toward bridging the price delta that currently exists between a new diesel Class 8 truck today, and a new battery electric truck, a hydrogen fuel cell truck, or a new truck fitted with current cutting-edge autonomous control technology.

This predicted price increase could sway a lot of fleets to give electric or hydrogen fuel cell trucks a try, as well as trucks running alternative-fuel internal combustion engines. But those technologies won’t be a good fit for many fleets. So how can a fleet that has no option but to buy new diesel trucks mitigate those costs in some way? Well, full autonomous driving systems might prove to be an attractive solution — for at least a portion of a fleet’s new truck purchases.

I’ve talked before in my NACFE autonomous blogs about how powerful the bottom line incentives will be for fleets when autonomous technology can take a driver completely out of a truck and let it deliver loads without any hands-on human control. It can be notoriously difficult to pin down an accurate figure on average truck driver pay. Online estimates from various sources range from $30,000 per year, to $70,000 per year. So, for the purpose of this little thought experiment, let’s split the difference (and add a smidge for cost-of-living increases by 2027) and use $45,000 per year as that average truck driver salary number.

If a fleet can cut $45,000 per year out of the cost of acquiring and operating a new, 2027 model year (and newer) truck, that changes the cost analysis for fleet executives considerably. Obviously, it makes the price increase much easier to swallow. And ROI for both the truck and its added autonomous technology increases dramatically, as well. And, as I’ve noted in my NACFE blogs, there’s also a strong likelihood that fleets will be able to run autonomous trucks longer than human-operated rigs, because they’ll be safer, slower, and the computers won’t put near the shock and strain on a powertrain that humans do.

It is currently doubtful that autonomous trucks will be ready to run anywhere in North America by 2027. The current thinking is that, in its early incarnations, autonomous trucks will initially be limited to areas with favorable weather conditions, like the American Southwest. Which means that national fleets will likely decide to purchase a percentage of new, post-2027 trucks with autonomous technology. But even limited purchases of new trucks with autonomous controls and no humans on board would be a massive boost for the technology and a major shift for the North American trucking industry in general.I

have no doubt that the price increases baked into 2027 trucks by the EPA are intended to push more fleets toward battery-electric or hydrogen fuel cell trucks. But the emergence of Level 4 and Level 5 autonomous technology could allow many fleets to continue running diesel trucks for some years to come.